• Skip to primary navigation
  • Skip to main content
  • Skip to footer

Alex Pavlenko

Vancouver - Portland Real Estate

  • Search
  • Buy
  • Sell
  • Resources
    • What’s My Home Worth?
    • Seller’s Guide
    • Buyer’s Guide
    • Buyer’s Packet
    • For Sale By Owner Guide
    • Clark County Guide
    • Home Service Pro’s
    • N. Portland Guide
  • Blog
  • (360) 205-5901

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

March 23, 2020 by Alex Pavlenko Leave a Comment

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | Simplifying The Market

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Risk, believes we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachs anticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | Simplifying The MarketGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*Quarter 1 data from Goldman Sachs was updated from 0% to -0.2% on 3/17/20 after the initial release.

Bottom Line

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.

Filed Under: Real Estate

More Posts

What Experts Are Saying about the 2021 Job Market

Owning a Home Is Still More Affordable Than Renting One

Should I Wait for Lower Mortgage Interest Rates?

How to Make the Dream of Homeownership a Reality This Year

Reader Interactions

Leave a Reply Cancel reply

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

Footer

Alex Pavlenko
Realtor

Connect with Alex

  • Email
  • Facebook
  • Instagram
  • Phone

Other Resources

  • Clark County Guide
  • Clark County Home Valuation
  • My Biz
  • Home Service Pro’s

Mobile Scan & Share

QR Code
  • eXp Realty
  • 13011 NE Fourth Plain Blvd Suite 106, Vancouver, WA 98682
  • (360) 205-5901

RSS Clark County Insider | Podcast

  • Kevin The Berner (Virtual Therapy Dog) - Creating smiles, one human at a time September 24, 2020
  • ZootScoot - Vancouver, WA September 15, 2020
  • Be Well Juice Bar - Vancouver, WA September 7, 2020

Community Guides

  • Home
  • Blog
  • Contact Alex
  • eMail: AlexPavlenkoRealtor@Gmail.com
  • Call/Text Alex: (360) 609-6937

Copyright © 2021 · Alex Pavlenko Realtor · RE/MAX Equity Group · Log in
The trademarks RMLS®, Regional Multiple Listing Service®, and the associated logos are owned by RE/MAX and it's affiliates.